QBE – divergence in options indicator

QBE’s Historical Volatility (HV) rose in the last two months as share rallied from early Jan to yesterday. The normal pattern is that of an INVERSE relationship.

Historical:

4 Jun 12 to 8 Aug 12: share rose 22%, HV fell 13%

7 Jan 2013 to 25 Feb 2013: share rose 10%, HV ROSE 38% (!)

Questions:

1 Did this foreshadow today’s plunge of around 4% (at the time of writing)  post results?

2 With the HV now near peak (yesterday was 35, let peak in Jun 2012 was 36), if HV were to come OFF its peak, would this then foreshadow a rally in the share price?

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